As the world transitions toward sustainable transportation, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) has become a defining trend in the automotive industry. With EV sales surging globally, traditional automotive segments—especially those dependent on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles—are facing disruptive changes. One such segment is the engine lubricants market, which has long been reliant on the maintenance needs of gasoline and diesel-powered engines.
This article explores how the growing adoption of electric vehicles is influencing the demand for engine lubricants, with an emphasis on market trends, challenges, and strategic responses.
Electric Vehicle Adoption Trends
The global electric vehicle market has experienced exponential growth over the past decade. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), over 14 million new EVs were sold in 2023 alone, representing a 35% increase from the previous year. Leading markets like China, the United States, and Europe are driving this surge, bolstered by government incentives, stricter emissions regulations, and growing environmental awareness among consumers.
Nigeria and other African countries are gradually catching up, with local governments introducing EV-friendly policies, charging infrastructure, and investment incentives for green mobility. As electric mobility becomes mainstream, it poses direct implications for industries built around fossil-fuel-powered engines—most notably, the engine lubricants sector.
The Role of Engine Lubricants in ICE Vehicles
Engine lubricants—typically made from base oils and various additives—play a crucial role in reducing friction, cooling engine components, preventing corrosion, and enhancing engine longevity. These oils are essential for the optimal functioning of internal combustion engines and are a staple in vehicle maintenance routines.
The conventional automotive lubricant market includes:
- Engine Oils: The most widely used product in ICE vehicles.
- Transmission Fluids
- Gear Oils
- Coolants and Greases
All of these categories are either partially or wholly redundant in electric vehicles, which run on electric motors rather than combustion engines.
How Electric Vehicles Impact Lubricant Demand
1. Reduced Need for Engine Oils
Electric vehicles do not have traditional internal combustion engines and therefore do not require engine oil. This directly impacts the largest segment of the automotive lubricants market. As EV adoption grows, the volume of engine oil consumed in routine maintenance will decrease significantly.
2. Lower Lubricant Replacement Frequency
Even in EVs that require minimal lubricants—for components like gearboxes, bearings, and thermal systems—the replacement cycles are much longer than those in ICE vehicles. Fewer service intervals mean reduced lubricant consumption over the vehicle’s lifetime.
3. Shift Toward Specialized Fluids
While EVs eliminate the need for engine oils, they still require specialized lubricants like:
- EV Thermal Management Fluids
- Coolants for Battery Packs
- Greases for Electric Motors
This shift creates new opportunities for lubricant manufacturers but demands a reallocation of R&D efforts and production capabilities.
Global Market Projections
According to a report by Grand View Research, the global automotive lubricants market was valued at over $66 billion in 2022, with engine oils contributing the largest share. However, the market is expected to face stagnation or decline in the coming decades as electric vehicle penetration increases.
Some key projections include:
- Global engine oil demand may shrink by 30%–40% by 2040, depending on the speed of EV adoption.
- Africa and emerging markets may experience slower declines due to delayed EV adoption compared to developed nations.
- Specialty EV lubricants could grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5%–8% through 2030.
Implications for Lubricant Manufacturers
The electric mobility revolution demands a strategic pivot for lubricant manufacturers. Here’s how they are responding:
1. Investing in R&D for EV-Specific Lubricants
Brands like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Castrol are investing in research to develop advanced EV fluids tailored for battery cooling, transmission efficiency, and electric motor protection.
2. Diversifying Product Portfolios
Many companies are expanding their offerings to include non-automotive lubricants, such as those used in industrial machinery, aviation, or marine applications—segments less impacted by electrification.
3. Strategic Collaborations
Collaborations with EV manufacturers are becoming more common. For example, Castrol has partnered with Jaguar Racing to develop high-performance fluids for electric race cars, showcasing their commitment to EV innovation.
4. Sustainability Branding
Many lubricant manufacturers are using sustainability-focused branding to appeal to environmentally conscious consumers. This includes promoting biodegradable oils and low-emission production processes.
Impact on the Nigerian Market
In Nigeria, where the market for engine lubricants is still expanding due to a growing fleet of used ICE vehicles, the EV impact will be more gradual. However, several factors will eventually change the landscape:
- Government policy: As Nigeria adopts emission reduction goals, the introduction of EVs will gain momentum.
- Infrastructure development: Charging stations and EV-friendly roads will be crucial for adoption.
- Public awareness: Increased understanding of EV benefits may accelerate demand.
Lubricant companies operating in Nigeria must begin preparing for this transition, even if it appears distant.
Strategic Recommendations for Stakeholders
For Lubricant Manufacturers:
- Begin investing in EV-specific product lines, especially thermal fluids and e-transmission lubricants.
- Collaborate with local automobile assemblers and importers that plan to include EVs in their portfolios.
- Educate dealerships and technicians about new fluid requirements for EVs.
For Auto Service Providers:
- Retrain technicians to handle EV-specific maintenance, including fluid checks and battery cooling systems.
- Diversify services beyond oil changes to include EV diagnostics, battery health checks, and charging solutions.
For Policymakers:
- Develop a clear roadmap for electric mobility that aligns environmental goals with industrial growth.
- Offer incentives for local EV assembly and fluid production, creating new job opportunities.
The electric vehicle boom is reshaping the global automotive landscape, and the engine lubricants market is not immune to this transformation. While the decline of ICE vehicles poses a significant challenge, it also offers a chance for innovation and diversification. Manufacturers that proactively pivot toward EV-compatible lubricants and invest in next-generation fluid technology will be best positioned to thrive in this evolving market.
As Nigeria prepares for the inevitable rise of electric vehicles, stakeholders across the lubricant supply chain must begin adapting today. The future of the engine lubricants industry may not lie in the engine—but in the electric drive system, the battery, and the innovations yet to come.